- The bar is about the client mix, not about resigning: it catches a person whose activity goes mainly to an employer they work for or worked for in the two preceding tax years, or to anyone traceable back to that employer.
- The lookback runs two years, but comma 71 shuts the year after each year the condition is met, so the regime is unavailable for three tax years rather than two. The other reading practitioners take of comma 57 moves which three years are lost and not how many.
- For a consultancy billing €50,000 on the 67% profitability share that is €10,355 a year and €31,065 over the three — €12,831 a year where the 5% start-up rate would have applied.
- The bands presuming the least profit lose the most: the same €50,000 costs €15,371 a year on the 40% share against €6,824 on the 86% one.
- Real business costs narrow the gap, which closes only above 40.6% of turnover for this band at this billing. Every other limit in the regime is written as a figure; this one is written as the word «prevalentemente».
A developer resigns in March, opens a partita IVA the week after, and keeps invoicing the company they left. For the rest of that year Italy’s flat tax applies as usual. From the following January it does not, and on €50,000 of billing that costs €10,355 a year. The regime stays shut for three tax years, not the two the lookback period suggests: €31,065 before they can use it again.17
None of that follows from resigning. It follows from who she bills afterwards, and it can be avoided by billing someone else — which is the part of the rule most worth understanding before signing the first contract.
What the rule actually bars
The flat-rate regime lists the people who cannot use it, and one of them is defined by their client list. Letter d-bis) excludes “le persone fisiche la cui attività sia esercitata prevalentemente nei confronti di datori di lavoro con i quali sono in corso rapporti di lavoro o erano intercorsi rapporti di lavoro nei due precedenti periodi d’imposta, ovvero nei confronti di soggetti direttamente o indirettamente riconducibili ai suddetti datori di lavoro” — people whose activity is carried on mainly towards employers they work for, or worked for in the two preceding tax years, or towards anyone traceable back to those employers.1
Three things in that sentence do the work. The bar attaches to the share of the activity, so a former employer can be a client and cannot be the main one. The window reaches back two tax years, so the person who left a job in 2026 is still inside it in 2028. And the last clause follows the money through intermediaries: an agency, a subsidiary or a holding company that ends up paying for the same work is treated as the employer.1
Nothing in it is about the type of work. A designer who leaves an agency and does entirely different work for it is caught; one who does identical work for a competitor is not.
Two years of lookback, three years out
The obvious reading of a two-year window is that the regime is unavailable for two years. The statute says otherwise, in a separate provision. Comma 71 provides that the regime “cessa di avere applicazione a partire dall’anno successivo a quello in cui … si verifica taluna delle fattispecie indicate al comma 57” — it stops from the year after the one in which the cause arises.2
Put the two together and each year inside the lookback window shuts the year after it. For someone whose employment ended in 2026 the cause arises in 2026, in 2027 and again in 2028, because 2026 is still one of the two preceding tax years each time. Those three verifications close 2027, 2028 and 2029.
| Tax year | Employment | Old employer still the main client | Flat rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ends in March | yes | applies |
| 2027 | last year | yes | not available |
| 2028 | two years ago | yes | not available |
| 2029 | out of the window | yes | not available |
| 2030 | out of the window | yes | applies again |
The two provisions applied year by year: the lookback window in letter d-bis) and the deferral in comma 71. The third excluded year is the one the window has already closed on.12
Comma 57 can also be read the other way — as a direct bar in the year the cause arises, rather than in the year after it. On that reading the years lost are 2026, 2027 and 2028. The count is the same either way, which is why the three-year figure survives the disagreement: the two readings differ about which January the regime comes back, not about how many are missed.
The run is only as long as the client mix keeps it going. If the old employer stops being the largest client during 2026, the cause is made out once and the regime is unavailable for a single year. Three years is what happens when the arrangement simply continues.7
What the three years cost
A person outside the regime files under the ordinary rules: IRPEF on actual profit at progressive rates, plus the regional and municipal surcharges, in place of a single substitute tax on a statutory share of billing.64 Contributions to the INPS Gestione Separata are the same on both sides, so the whole difference is tax.5
Net income under the flat rate minus net income under the ordinary rules at the same billing, 67% profitability share, 15% substitute rate, no deductible costs. 2026 rates.7
At €20,000 of billing a year outside the regime costs €2,952; at the €85,000 ceiling it costs €21,620. The gap widens with billing because the flat rate does not move and the progressive scale does.7
It also depends on which profitability share the activity code carries, since that share decides how much of the billing the flat rate taxes at all. The bands that presume the least profit lose the most by leaving.
| Share | Activity group | A year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | food, drink, retail, wholesale | €15,371 | €46,113 |
| 54% | street commerce, non-food | €12,770 | €38,310 |
| 62% | trade intermediaries | €11,284 | €33,852 |
| 67% | other activities, including IT | €10,355 | €31,065 |
| 78% | professional, technical, health | €8,311 | €24,933 |
| 86% | construction, real estate | €6,824 | €20,472 |
One year and three years outside the regime, at the 15% substitute rate with no deductible costs. Contributions are held at the Gestione Separata in every row, so the share varies and the pension scheme does not.74
Real business costs narrow it, because the ordinary rules deduct them and the flat rate never does. At costs of 10% of turnover the €50,000 practice loses €7,656 a year instead of €10,355; at 20% it loses €4,957, and at 30% €2,471. The point where the two regimes leave the same money is 40.6% of turnover for this band at this billing, which an earlier piece measured across the whole grid.8
The start-up rate makes it worse, and may not be there
A new practice pays 5% instead of 15% for its first five years, which raises what a lost year costs the €50,000 consultancy to €12,831, and the three years to €38,493.7
Whether that rate was ever available is a separate question with the same answer at its root. Comma 65 grants it only if the activity “non costituisca, in nessun modo, mera prosecuzione di altra attività precedentemente svolta sotto forma di lavoro dipendente” — provided it is in no way a continuation of work previously done as an employee.3 The same career move that triggers the client-mix bar is the one that puts the start-up rate in doubt, so the person most likely to be reading about d-bis is often the one who should not have counted on the 5% either.
The word the statute never defines
The condition turns on the activity being carried on prevalentemente towards the former employer. The provision states no percentage, and neither does any other comma of the regime.1 That is unusual inside this particular text: the same set of commi fixes the ceiling at 85,000 euro, the immediate exit at 100,000, the staff-cost limit at 20,000 gross and the employment-income bar at a stated figure. Every other limit is a number. This one is an adverb.4
The consequence of drafting it that way is that the person has to judge their own year against a word, and can only do it once the invoices have gone out. Someone who takes one more job from an old employer in December may have changed their tax position for the following year, and nothing in the statute told them where the line was.
What this does not settle
Four things. Every figure here assumes no deductible business costs unless the sentence says otherwise, and the cost ladder above is the sensitivity that matters most. Contributions are Gestione Separata in every row, so the table of profitability shares reads as the same professional under a different presumed-profit share rather than as a shop or a building firm, which would pay artisan or trader contributions instead.
The regional and municipal surcharges vary by where you live and the engine applies a single representative pair, so the ordinary-rules side moves by some hundreds of euro between addresses. And the reading of when the bar starts is the statute’s own sentence, not a ruling: this piece reports what commi 57 and 71 say and how many years follow from them, and the answer to whether a particular contract is caught depends on facts the text alone cannot supply.
What the arithmetic does not decide either is whether the regime was worth keeping. A person offered enough additional work by a former employer is better off outside the flat rate than inside it with a smaller book, and the €85,000 ceiling makes the same point at the other end of the scale.
Sources
- 1.Normattiva — L. 190/2014, art. 1, comma 57, lettera d-bis) (testo in vigore al 13 agosto 2026): esclusi dal regime forfetario «le persone fisiche la cui attività sia esercitata prevalentemente nei confronti di datori di lavoro con i quali sono in corso rapporti di lavoro o erano intercorsi rapporti di lavoro nei due precedenti periodi d'imposta, ovvero nei confronti di soggetti direttamente o indirettamente riconducibili ai suddetti datori di lavoro»
- 2.Normattiva — L. 190/2014, art. 1, comma 71 (testo in vigore al 13 agosto 2026): «Il regime forfetario cessa di avere applicazione a partire dall'anno successivo a quello in cui viene meno taluna delle condizioni di cui al comma 54 ovvero si verifica taluna delle fattispecie indicate al comma 57»
- 3.Normattiva — L. 190/2014, art. 1, comma 65 (testo in vigore al 13 agosto 2026): aliquota del 5 per cento per il periodo d'imposta di inizio attività e i quattro successivi, a condizione fra l'altro che l'attività «non costituisca, in nessun modo, mera prosecuzione di altra attività precedentemente svolta sotto forma di lavoro dipendente o autonomo»
- 4.Normattiva — L. 190/2014, art. 1 commi 54–89 e Allegato 4 (regime forfettario, coefficienti di redditività)
- 5.Normattiva — L. 335/1995, art. 2 (INPS Gestione Separata)
- 6.Normattiva — TUIR (DPR 917/1986), artt. 11 e 13 (IRPEF)
- 7.TaxCompass dataset — annual and three-year cost of losing the forfettario under the ex-employer rule: fourteen revenue levels, the six statutory coefficients, both substitute rates, four real-cost ratios, 2026 rules (CSV)
- 8.TaxCompass dataset — real business costs at which the forfettario stops paying, by revenue, coefficient and rate, 2026 rules (CSV)
Every external figure above links to the document it came from. Datasets we produced are downloadable, so the arithmetic is checkable rather than taken on trust.
- €1,314A freelancer on €50,000 keeps €1,314 less in Salerno than in Bolzanoa year separates the dearest comune from the cheapest, for the same €50,000 outside the flat tax
- €50,837Leave Italy after five years and €50,837 of INPS does not come with youpaid into INPS over five years by a professional billing €50,000, none of it repayable on leaving
- €2,031The same shop, opened a year later, pays €2,031 more in its first three yearsmore in pension contributions over three years, for the same business started in 2026 rather than 2025
- €13,025Same €4,000 a month: a builder bills €13,025 moremore billing a builder needs than a shop for the same €4,000 a month — the activity band, not the contributions
- €400Billing €30,000 in €150 invoices costs €400 in stamp dutya year in stamp duty for a €30,000 practice billed in €150 pieces — 46% of the tax due at 5%
- €4,925.50One euro of salary costs an employed freelancer €4,925.50more tax and contributions on the same €20,000 side practice, for an employee one euro over Italy's salary bar
- €259.53Pay Italy's June bill on day 121 and €259.53 lands at oncelands in one step on day 121, on the pension contribution that is six sevenths of an Italian flat-tax June bill
- €7.44An Italian artisan pays €7.44 a year for cover that isn't a pensiona year is the entire non-pension part of an Italian artisan's 2026 compulsory contribution
- €2,000A €2,000 gap with what your clients declared brings a letteris the widest margin in the document: the gap between declared fees and clients' certificates that selects you
- €24,235A €50,000 practice pays €24,235 in its second yearleaves the account in the second calendar year of a €50,000 flat-tax practice, against €11,609 once it settles
- €72,338A shop billing €30,000 buys 7.8 months of pensionof billing is where the discount stops costing pension months, for a shop on the 40% coefficient
- €6,471Spend €6,471 running a €25,000 business and the flat tax stops payingof annual costs is where the flat tax stops paying for a professional billing €25,000
- €21,500A foreign professional in Italy saves €21,500. A business owner saves nothing.a year in income tax the relief takes off €100,000 — and nothing at all if that income is a business's
- 15Italy's flat tax changed 14 times. The 15% never did.versions of Italy's flat-tax rules since 2015, a new one every 185 days on median
- €440Italy's tax cut is worth €440 — nothing under €37,873 of billinga year at most, reached at €67,632 of billing and worth nothing at all below €37,873
- 18 of 18Italy repealed the forfettario and re-enacted it unchangedoperative numbers in the regime carry the same value in the text that replaces it on 1 January 2027
- 40%→67%A garage's taxable share jumped from 40% to 67%the coefficient a car mechanic's code resolves to before and after the renumbering
- 27Nobody in Brussels can abolish the forfettariogovernments would have to agree to legislate the regime away — Italy's among them
- €18,145Crossing €85,000 costs a professional €18,145 a yeara year in net income, the cost of crossing the €85,000 ceiling on the 78% coefficient
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